Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.561425 0.651242 0.747759 0.858831 0.982760 1.116412 1.271074
2025-03-16 0.409190 0.522066 0.652394 0.812681 1.003109 1.220697 1.486610
2025-03-23 0.322181 0.450539 0.609152 0.816447 1.076837 1.389573 1.789722
2025-03-30 0.233756 0.361495 0.531297 0.767718 1.081910 1.478268 2.008340
2025-04-06 0.174320 0.299103 0.477668 0.742165 1.112999 1.602592 2.284122
2025-04-13 0.127427 0.244481 0.425475 0.710975 1.132984 1.715123 2.556753
2025-04-20 0.098781 0.211456 0.399079 0.712792 1.199138 1.896475 2.938235
2025-04-27 0.074434 0.179327 0.368154 0.703197 1.247785 2.058551 3.308316
2025-05-04 0.057778 0.156654 0.348684 0.709039 1.320829 2.263054 3.756428
2025-05-11 0.044182 0.135774 0.328143 0.709930 1.386243 2.462247 4.213063
2025-05-18 0.030745 0.109873 0.291957 0.676923 1.391532 2.569084 4.539503
2025-05-25 0.020363 0.086447 0.254571 0.634657 1.375084 2.639259 4.814405
2025-06-01 0.014464 0.072791 0.236007 0.628329 1.426184 2.831364 5.307946
2025-06-08 0.009754 0.059651 0.214647 0.612178 1.457312 2.993335 5.766413
2025-06-15 0.007405 0.053565 0.209856 0.632010 1.561105 3.291011 6.471637
2025-06-22 0.004615 0.042570 0.187254 0.605905 1.569673 3.420419 6.902647
2025-06-29 0.002987 0.035189 0.172563 0.595882 1.610262 3.611668 7.453407
2025-07-06 0.001807 0.028367 0.156555 0.578756 1.633224 3.771774 7.960095
2025-07-13 0.001227 0.024793 0.150687 0.587878 1.715545 4.051359 8.696412
2025-07-20 0.000763 0.020912 0.141642 0.585941 1.772305 4.285360 9.363767
2025-07-27 0.000498 0.018361 0.137008 0.596282 1.859461 4.586328 10.171432
2025-08-03 0.000305 0.015851 0.131134 0.601483 1.934841 4.868754 10.959546
2025-08-10 0.000138 0.012255 0.117060 0.576154 1.930743 4.986739 11.442794